Showing logs for date: 2018-05-16
04:57:17 <Dave from B™> Grand at 7.5 hours and counting
05:19:20 <ynpvisitor94> Ice on the lake breaking up. Spring!
05:19:57 <Dave from B™> Someday, I would love to see that
05:20:42 <ynpvisitor94> It is fun to see it flowing under Fishing Bridge
05:22:04 <lc> morning
05:24:20 <Dave from B™> Morning lc
05:25:19 <lc> Dave you going in this week end?
05:25:52 <Dave from B™> Day trip to Norris on Sunday. Becca and I will be there from 0830 until 1700 or so
05:26:21 <Dave from B™> Monday is probably more likely for Steamboat but you have to go when you have free time
05:27:27 <lc> understand.
05:27:33 <lc> good luck.
05:28:05 <Dave from B™> Thanks. It sounds like it is going to be standing room only
05:28:24 <ynpvisitor72> Grand is at 8 hours
05:29:21 <Dave from B™> Grand has been haywire since Jim arrived:)
05:30:07 <lc> this is the longest interval in a while
05:30:42 <ynpvisitor94> Very elementary Jimbo. The game is obviously afoot. Upsidaisium my favorite but I am also fond of Yogi Barium
05:32:38 <Dave from B™> May 6 interval for Grand of 8:46 only other int over 8 hours in the last 100
05:35:08 <SherlockHolmium> There's also Vanadium White (game show hostess)
05:36:19 <Dave from B™> Kilaeau was active yesterday
05:36:42 <ynpvisitor94> You don't need to explain. if I don't get it I do not deserve to :)
05:40:13 <Dave from B™> Sounds like at some point you guys were locked in a room with only a Periodic Table to stare at for hours:)
05:40:44 <SherlockHolmium> As I was doing that I realized that three elemental symbols are single vowels, four if you count Y
05:40:50 <ynpvisitor72> Daisy
05:44:46 <ynpvisitor72> Riverside
05:50:15 <Eric> Morning
05:50:33 <lc> morning Eric
05:50:40 <Eric> Hi lc :-D
06:00:58 <Art> 20 minutes since last Turban
06:01:50 <ynpvisitor72> Grand
06:02:26 <ynpvisitor72> >
06:02:28 <ynpvisitor72> .
06:02:35 <Art> 8h 34m
06:03:12 <Eric> distinct lack of wind
06:03:20 <Eric> OF
06:04:30 <lc> Great, if you like steam.
06:07:52 <ynpvisitor72> love steam
06:10:36 <ynpvisitor72> 2nd
06:12:10 <SherlockHolmium> Looked like a rocket launch
06:42:31 <lc> bbl
06:44:18 <Mike J> Quick aside: SherlockHolmium; love it
06:47:00 <SherlockHolmium> Thanks. I'd gotten 67 a few times so I gave it a twist
06:50:47 <Dave from B™> Castle ie
06:55:14 <Dave from B™> Good morning Bill
06:55:37 <Bill> Morning
06:59:49 <Dave from B™> Bill, are you in the field or stuck in the office today?
07:03:47 <Dave from B™> Morning Kevin...how much for a ticket to tonight's game?
07:04:32 <Kevin L™> Probably more than for tomorrow's Caps game.
07:05:13 <Bill> Today I'm heading down to Old Faithful to talk with some of our new seasonal employees. We are going to go over a game plan on how we want to manage maintenance, cleaning, monitoring of the thermal areas throughout the park.
07:05:30 <Bill> If we have time we may head over to Mud Volcano.
07:08:00 <Dave from B™> Looks like a good day to be in the field. Maybe, you'll catch Giant
07:08:46 <Kevin L™> If you have time Bill, show them how to clean the dome!
07:08:55 <Eric> :-)
07:09:16 <Kevin L™> Tickets are between $200 and $3300 Dave.
07:09:44 <Dave from B™> 200...not bad for playoff nosebleeds
07:10:28 <Kevin L™> Add $30 for insane MGM parking costs.
07:10:55 <Dave from B™> Cheaper to take the monorail
07:11:27 <Eric> So if you pay $3300/ticket, I am not sure parking your car for $30 is a big deal :-P
07:12:29 <Kevin L™> My kid has an employee pass so we would be able to park free. Like watching on TV better.
07:12:29 <Dave from B™> Kevin, sounds like Eric will pay for our parking:)
07:13:26 <Kevin L™> He has a friend that has season tickets next year and told him he can have the tickets when they play the Flames.
07:14:07 <Dave from B™> I love watching hockey in person
07:24:02 <Art> Nice OF
07:25:00 <Dave from B™> Cistern has drained
07:27:45 <Dave from B™> When you think about the unpredictability of many geysers the consistent OF is really amazing
07:28:26 <Kevin L™> That is why it is called Old Faithful!
07:28:39 <SherlockHolmium> Years ago I read that one reason for it is that it is isolated. Is Lone Star geyser consistent, if not as frequent?
07:28:46 <lc> I thought Cistern only drained after Steamboat erupted.
07:29:28 <Dave from B™> lc, maybe a delayed reaction to the last Steamboat?
07:30:12 <lc> must be but 3 days seems like a long time.
07:30:26 <ynpvisitor64> it erupted and has been dropping lc
07:31:04 <lc> so it took it about 3 days to drain?
07:31:36 <lc> seems like a long time, but I don't know ANYTHING about it.
07:31:45 <Kevin L™> Doggies!
07:33:13 <ynpvisitor64> looks like it drained yesterday
09:23:33 <ynpvisitor64> .
09:23:41 <ynpvisitor38> o/
10:00:19 <Art> .
10:00:19 <Art> .
10:00:21 <Art> .
10:00:22 <Art> .
10:00:30 <Art> Indy
10:01:07 <Eric> nice
10:01:14 <Dave from B™> woohoo
10:01:40 <Rice> Let the drooling begin...
10:01:53 <Kevin L™> :)
10:02:07 <Craig> Noice
10:02:49 <Kevin L™> Lucky kids
10:04:27 <Eric> People better get moving...they will be late for OF!
10:07:04 <Art> People walking by Indy, kills me every time
10:07:53 <ynpvisitor97> even with udo there explaining significance
10:09:33 <Craig> is the webcam choppy for anyone else?
10:09:53 <Art> Not too bad here
10:09:57 <ynpvisitor97> not choppy
10:10:11 <ynpvisitor97> lots of shimmer today though
10:10:38 <Eric> zero chop here
10:10:40 <ynpvisitor...> Dirty dome degrades image some.
10:11:00 <Art> LC
10:13:04 <Dave from B™> BH crowds are growing
10:13:23 <Kevin L™> Up to 8 now!
10:13:59 <Dave from B™> Better count again:)
10:14:15 <Eric> kids only count 1/2
10:14:34 <Dave from B™> closer to 18
10:15:02 <Kevin L™> The kids look younger than 18
10:16:54 <Craig> 16 minute indy!
10:17:57 <Eric> wow...really long indy
10:19:06 <Art> Bee
10:19:12 <Eric> :bee::bee::bee:
10:19:37 <Eric> almost an 18m indy!
10:20:16 <Eric> did txt go out?
10:20:24 <Art> yup
10:20:40 <Eric> ok, thx
10:38:50 <ynpvisitor48> :bee: had a nice long indicator yesterday too, IIRC - 18 minutes or maybe 19.
10:40:28 <ynpvisitor48> IMHO, FWIW, and all that - it;s time to reduce the :bee: prediction interval to maybe 15 hours. Overall, the intervals are shortening up, and some are less than the prediction, while none seem to be longer.
10:41:33 <ynpvisitor48> 14:45 even - that would have caught all of the most recent Beehives.
10:44:17 <ynpvisitor48> I did not get the BHI text.
10:45:04 <ynpvisitor48> I take that back - it came during an emergency and I was not able to look.
11:05:28 <Betty> afternoon all
11:06:08 <Kevin L™> hi
11:06:25 <Betty> hi Kevin
11:18:27 <Betty> the dome needs a cleaning
11:20:59 <Kevin L™> They are looking for a jackhammer.
11:28:56 <Betty> have you seen your granddaughter yet Kevin?
11:29:24 <Kevin L™> We went up Saturday.
11:29:35 <Betty> nice
11:31:43 <Kevin L™> Sent you some pics.
11:31:52 <Kevin L™> Aurum?
11:32:00 <Kevin L™> .
11:32:03 <Betty> .
11:32:05 <Betty> .
11:32:24 <Betty> good catch Kevin
11:33:44 <Kevin L™> Why can't I do that when I am on the cam?
11:34:52 <Betty> Dome
11:38:40 <Dave from B™> You can't drive and watch at the same time?:)
11:39:08 <Betty> he´s a guy. NO! hi Dave :-)
11:39:21 <Kevin L™> It usually finds the times I take a break.
11:39:35 <Dave from B™> Hi Betty
11:39:58 <Kevin L™> So are you heading to the park this weekend Dave?
11:40:40 <Craig> Giantess seems to be having pretty good boils
11:41:43 <Betty> I like the last one. She looks like you :-)
11:42:30 <Kevin L™> Sleeping?
11:42:33 <Betty> hi Craig
11:42:44 <Betty> haha, no
11:42:54 <Craig> Hi Betty
11:44:01 <Betty> with the hair ribbon
11:45:26 <Betty> Giantess looks good
11:45:49 <Betty> would like to see it going
11:45:50 <Kevin L™> Funny thin is she has more hair than my Grandson and he is 18 months old!
11:45:50 <Craig> my thoughts exactly
11:46:33 <Kevin L™> It will probably go on a night with no moon.
11:46:36 <Betty> so he looks like you too ;-)
11:48:43 <Dave from B™> Kevin, Becca and I are heading to Norris for a Sunday day trip.
11:48:55 <Dave from B™> We will be there from 0830 to 1700
11:49:21 <Dave from B™> First ever day trip for a geyser
11:49:34 <Betty> awesome Dave :-)
11:49:36 <Kevin L™> Wish you luck
11:49:52 <Betty> :thumbsup::thumbsup:
11:50:19 <Kevin L™> Sent you some more Betty
11:50:30 <Dave from B™> Thanks. There is supposed to be a gaggle of gazers there on sunday. It will be fun even if Steamboat doesn't cooperate
11:51:00 <Betty> I bet
11:51:34 <Kevin L™> Sounds like a good time.
11:53:32 <LETS GO CAPS> stay dry Dave, mght be drippy weather too
11:55:35 <Dave from B™> Hi Graham. We will have multiple lunches and rain gear in the pack
11:56:03 <Dave from B™> Graham, any truth to the rumor that Caps are trying to play all their games in Tampa for a price?:D
11:56:03 <Kevin L™> You ready for more road games Graham?
11:56:13 <Kevin L™> :)
11:56:47 <Dave from B™> Great minds think alike:)
11:57:10 <Betty> cute pics, Kevin
11:57:44 <Kevin L™> Pretty odd to have a playoff series this high up with no home wins!
11:57:57 <LETS GO CAPS> i think the Knights stole the Caps mojo
11:58:07 <Kevin L™> You see what I mean about the hair Betty.
11:58:26 <LETS GO CAPS> LC?
11:58:41 <Betty> yep
11:58:49 <Dave from B™> Graham, when is your first trip to Wonderland?
11:58:52 <Betty> to both :-)
11:58:56 <Kevin L™> My Daughter is learning that a quiet 18 month old boy is NOT a good thing too.
11:58:56 <LETS GO CAPS> good luck again tonight Kevin, you can make it a whole new series
11:59:36 <Betty> hhahaha, no, not good at all
11:59:47 <Kevin L™> We are hoping so. even Caesar has a Knights hockey stick now.
12:00:12 <Betty> we had a flooding in the room when nephews were that quiet
12:00:53 <Kevin L™> No flooding (so far) but a few other nice surprises!
12:00:56 <Betty> Riverside
12:01:29 <Art> And you thinking keeping the OF cam clean must be a project: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/webcam.html?webcam=POcam
12:02:34 <Betty> :-)
12:02:38 <Betty> thanks Art
12:03:05 <Kevin L™> That could get toasty. Surprised that that cam is still working.
12:04:49 <Dave from B™> haha, Art. I saw that cam this morning and was thinking the same thing. Hazard pay for cleaning that cam!
12:05:25 <Dave from B™> I thought Feather erupting was a good thing
12:05:29 <Betty> OF
12:05:44 <ynpvisitor11> no Turban times?
12:07:22 <Kevin L™> They may be at Giant.
12:08:41 <Betty> snow is pretty gone at West entrance
12:11:28 <ynpvisitor11> ice is leaving lake...must be spring
12:12:19 <Betty> this looks like the weather you can see on Washburn cam
12:13:21 <Craig> That's one heck of a downpour
12:13:33 <ynpvisitor11> is it hail?
12:14:19 <ynpvisitor11> maybe that is why no Turban times
12:14:22 <Kevin L™> Don't think it is snow.
12:14:47 <Kevin L™> That is ugly
12:14:56 <ynpvisitor99> It kind of looks like corn snow or graupel.
12:15:22 <Betty> doggie does not like it too
12:15:24 <ynpvisitor11> except it is too warm
12:16:05 <Betty> Dome ie
12:16:14 <ynpvisitor11> blue sky at lake though the last frame is from 1350
12:16:15 <ynpvisitor99> Yepp - 54 degrees is a bit toasty for icy stuff.
12:16:28 <ynpvisitor11> things can change fast in Yellowstone
12:16:41 <Craig> looking at the statics it looks like rain
12:17:26 <ynpvisitor11> I think there was some hail mixed in for a few minutes
12:19:01 <Betty> looks like Turban now
12:24:43 <ynpvisitor11> Turban, no Grand...
12:33:23 <ynpvisitor11> Maybe a Grand start coming up...
12:40:18 <ynpvisitor99> Turban again
12:40:46 <Kevin L™> Big Turban too.
12:40:57 <Eric> That looks like a big Turban :-D
12:41:17 <ynpvisitor99> :grand:
12:41:19 <Eric> You are too fast for me Kevin :-P
12:41:23 <Craig> a turban of epic proportions
12:41:55 <ynpvisitor99> LOLZ! I hit the send button just a second before the blast of steam :-D
12:42:27 <Eric> and you could be correct...might have been a turban start :-D
12:42:36 <ynpvisitor99> The GOSA prediction was REALLY close. Love that stuff.
12:47:03 <SherlockHolmium> Gotta get lucky to see a jet of water
12:47:05 <Dave from B™> I'm headed to the dentist in 20 minutes to fix my tooth so a geyser beginning with Gian should be next
12:48:23 <ynpvisitor99> Or else "Rinse and Spit" Geyser
12:54:32 <LETS GO CAPS> dome
12:54:35 <Betty> Dome
12:55:29 <Kevin L™> Kuppel
12:59:08 <Jake> afternoon all
12:59:22 <Betty> hi Jake
12:59:25 <Kevin L™> hi
13:02:24 <Betty> LC
13:07:06 <Betty> time for sleep, enjoy the Gian***stuff :-) night all
13:08:35 <Kevin L™> Good Knight
13:44:40 <ynpvisitor...> Janet's report of ice moving down the Yellowstone yesterday helpful in explaining today's cam view.
13:53:08 <Jake> hey, I'm back. hi Kevin & Betty
13:53:53 <Jake> I read some of the log, I'm not prepared to move the Beehive prediction window forward yet. 4 hours is never enough to capture 100% of eruptions
13:54:25 <Jake> it would perhaps be better for visitors to move it forward so when the prediction misses the eruption comes after the window (the NPS philosophy)
13:54:46 <Jake> but I like going for higher % accuracy inside the 4 hours
13:54:59 <ynpvisitor...> Combined Yellowstone GTNP pass to end. https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/news/05152018.htm
13:55:01 <Eric> 214m window captures all of the last 12
13:57:29 <Eric> 4h window captures all of the last 32
13:57:35 <LETS GO CAPS> maybe the ice moving will help the Caps
13:58:05 <ynpvisitor22> People that want a combined pass can buy the pass for all the parks. They were close to the same price anyway.
13:58:14 <LETS GO CAPS> stop trying to apply logic Eric
13:58:18 <ynpvisitor22> Only $80
13:58:18 <Jake> from 12:30 to 16:30? current BH prediction is 13:45 to 17:45
13:58:20 <LETS GO CAPS> and math
13:58:48 <LETS GO CAPS> its geysertimes, it has to be unpredictable in its methods
13:58:58 <Jake> so the YNP GTNP divorce is complete. Irreconcilible budget differences
13:59:24 <LETS GO CAPS> i wonder if it will change the number of jint visitors?
14:00:08 <Jake> barely a blip I imagine
14:00:12 <LETS GO CAPS> or joint park visitors
14:00:28 <Jake> joints are still illegal-federal land
14:00:32 <LETS GO CAPS> of course if it included a CO park then "joint" visitors would be right
14:01:03 <Eric> Or the entire west coast :-P
14:01:16 <Jake> GT should be transparent in its predictions. there's nothing to hide, it's just not easy to find or figure out ;)
14:01:50 <LETS GO CAPS> gues i have to hope for Lion to erupt on my shift. gonna be a snoozer
14:01:57 <Eric> I would like to see how a moving average, based on recent eruptions compares to fixed predictions.
14:02:33 <LETS GO CAPS> that costs money eric
14:02:38 <Jake> I have an excel sheet somewhere that does that calculation
14:02:42 <Eric> Been thinking about adding it here for comparison.
14:03:06 <Eric> easy enough to do in javascript...I already eliminate and evaluate with the /gt command
14:03:18 <Jake> iirc, the best moving average predictor was the last 7 intervals
14:03:32 <LETS GO CAPS> is that the $$$ spreadsheet Jake?
14:03:32 <Eric> I think even that number could be variable.
14:04:06 <LETS GO CAPS> Eric might undercut you and do it for free
14:05:45 <Eric> Not always perfect, but I think you could get tighter predictions here with a good % of accuracy.
14:05:50 <Jake> the real number that makes the best prediction is variable in hindsight, but you have to pick one now
14:06:22 <Eric> Right...but that could be based off of localized trends in the data
14:06:54 <Eric> Is BH interval trending up or down...when did that trend start?
14:08:13 <Jake> this is why we need the prediction competition leaderboard, there's so many ways to do it
14:08:22 <LETS GO CAPS> theres plenty of data to do the tests of how valid they are in the future
14:08:38 <Jake> Dep ?
14:09:27 <LETS GO CAPS> that would be a splashy yes
14:09:59 <Jake> I do think that BH intervals are "sticky" more so than other geysers, but I don't see them following much of a trend. when intervals are increasing, they don't increase forever
14:11:08 <Eric> For sure...they seem to cycle up and down somewhat. Same for grand and daisy
14:11:12 <LETS GO CAPS> good job we have some easy geysers to predict like Steamboat which I hear will erupt on Sunday
14:11:40 <LETS GO CAPS> elk on Electric Peak cam
14:11:47 <Eric> Yep...Dave made it easy...he is leaving at 1700, so I predict Sunday @ 1800 :-P
14:11:49 <Jake> by "sticky" I mean a dependence on recent intervals whereas classroom statistics always works with independent random events
14:12:48 <LETS GO CAPS> i think he will be leaving later
14:13:07 <Eric> ok...I predict it will go right after dave leaves.
14:13:21 <LETS GO CAPS> thats highly likely
14:13:28 <LETS GO CAPS> dome
14:14:10 <Eric> But I hope it goes for everyone on a beautiful Sunday afternoon.
14:14:28 <LETS GO CAPS> we could have a pool on how many hours after Dave leaves that it will erupt?
14:14:41 <LETS GO CAPS> i hope someone sees a start, even at night
14:16:09 <Jake> I hope someone sees the start and the interval is <10 days
14:16:30 <Eric> The other thing is the localized trend for range of eruptions...I think we could dynamically tighten the window based off of trends.
14:17:00 <Jake> agreed
14:17:41 <Jake> for Norris, I have little confidence in the area's ability to produce regular geyser activity after I was skunked by Ledge last year
14:17:56 <Jake> last year = 2015
14:20:53 <Eric> Steamboat != ledge!
14:22:33 <Jake> gotta go, bye all
14:22:45 <Eric> bye Jake
14:22:47 <Jake> nice developer language, Eric "!=" haha
14:22:51 <Jake> it's clearly <>
14:23:11 <LETS GO CAPS> go watch Vixen Jake
14:23:36 <Eric> Meh...java programmer :-P
14:24:46 <LETS GO CAPS> why has it gone dark?
14:54:59 <LETS GO CAPS> dome
15:16:56 <Eric> OF ie
15:17:33 <Eric> Nice to see that lion back there too!
15:23:28 <Eric> Next daisy 18:15 +- 7m
15:35:44 <LETS GO CAPS> dome
16:25:07 <LETS GO CAPS> daisy
16:54:37 <LETS GO CAPS> a short
17:02:27 <Kevin L™> Just about Knight time.
17:03:09 <LETS GO CAPS> way too late
17:15:05 <kcmule> canada vs las vegas, certainly an intriguing matchup
17:15:53 <Kevin L™> And there was even a jets flyover!
17:16:39 <Kevin L™> Goal!!!!!!
17:17:13 <Kevin L™> 35 seconds!
17:17:37 <LETS GO CAPS> for which team?
17:17:51 <Kevin L™> :)
17:18:28 <Kevin L™> Bet there is at least one fight in this game.
17:21:39 <kcmule> usually only see that in lopsided games in the playoffs. usually..
17:22:25 <LETS GO CAPS> perfect weather for Giant
18:06:04 <LETS GO CAPS> goodnight and GO KNIGHTS
18:22:09 <kcmule> hope that at least improves the pace of this game zzz
18:27:05 <Kevin L™> That was a quickie comeback
18:27:15 <Kevin L™> Is your streaming freezing?
18:27:44 <Kevin L™> :)
18:40:49 <kcmule> a lot of the gameplay has been kinda lame tonight. I just root for triple OT :)
18:42:43 <ynpvisitor109> Yes!
18:42:47 <Kevin L™> Grand
18:43:27 <Kevin L™> I need to go to sleep. End it after 2!
18:43:37 <Kevin L™> Periods, not overtimes!
18:43:50 <ynpvisitor109> :)
18:46:00 <kcmule> takes blood sweat tears and no sleep to get a cup. no shaving either
18:47:02 <Kent> A bit large for a shaving mug?
18:47:03 <Kevin L™> We may see blood soon.
18:48:27 <Kevin L™> Depression?
18:49:14 <Kevin L™> Told you.
18:50:04 <Kevin L™> How was that NOT tripping?
18:50:09 <Kent> U seem to be into blood sports
18:51:06 <Kent> Lake cam the last few days has been great. They need to get the spare one out of the closet and install it a Norris.
18:51:09 <Kevin L™> It is just getting intense. Lot on the line.
19:12:21 <Kevin L™> Daisy
19:22:31 <ynpvisitor36> Looks like not much attention paid to Giant today :(
19:55:31 <Kevin L™> Looks like some hand shaking going on down there.
20:07:08 <Eric> Is that a grotto?
20:08:54 <Eric> also, interesting water discharge rate on steamboat
20:09:51 <ynpvisitor51> That would be Dave's luck.
20:10:40 <ynpvisitor64> what water discharg?
20:17:02 <Eric> Sorry...water discharge on tantalus creek gauge
20:18:08 <Kevin L™> Right, get us all excited....
20:18:52 <ynpvisitor64> what's your interpretation of it? Any ideas
20:24:04 <Kevin L™> Hey Suzanne been a while!