Showing logs for date: 2022-10-23
08:39:35 <Delta4Heavy85> OF
08:53:32 <Delta4Heavy85> Roar
10:51:47 <Betty> morning all
11:04:09 <Kevin L™ 🌵> hi
11:22:26 <Betty> hi Kevin L™ 🌵
11:23:56 <Betty> looks like a bit of snow
11:24:07 <Kevin L™ 🌵> :p
11:31:41 <Betty> dilapidated ie
11:32:33 <Kevin L™ 🌵> You talking about me Betty?
11:33:36 <Betty> nope :-)
11:33:50 <5> are you in eruption Kevin?
11:34:08 <Kevin L™ 🌵> I have been known to be...
11:34:21 <Betty> :-D
11:34:51 <5> :)
11:36:41 <5> looks like there are still flurries about
11:39:05 <Betty> OF
11:46:39 <KorbenC> HRRR seems to have verified overnight, it thinks there could be up to an inch more today.
11:49:59 <Kevin L™ 🌵> Looks ugly now.
11:52:55 <KorbenC> It does seem like BH is continuing to hate the coldy snow weather, 1d 8hr itnerval last night
11:58:09 <5> a bit of a line at West now, only 2 gates open though
13:29:29 <KorbenC> South Entrance to WT is open, Craig pass still closed I believe
15:30:19 <Betty> is that Penta?
15:30:40 <KorbenC> YES
15:30:40 <KorbenC> .
15:30:40 <KorbenC> .
15:30:41 <KorbenC> .
15:33:56 <KorbenC> Betty, fyi, you put your last OF in as a long but in basin has it as short.
15:34:26 <Betty> :thumbsup:
15:35:28 <Betty> I had it only on static, seemed long to me
15:36:23 <KorbenC> :thumbsup:
15:36:33 <KorbenC> Looks like something down by Spa/Grotto Fountain ie
15:38:12 <KorbenC> Riverside
15:47:48 <Betty> I did not see Penta start at 1519
15:49:11 <KorbenC> Betty, I looked on video. Or are you saying that you looked at video and didn't see it at 1519?
15:49:50 <Betty> I don´t see it start on video at 1519
15:50:14 <KorbenC> let me look again
15:52:28 <KorbenC> I am looking at 15:20:04 which is what the video shows the start as. But .getvideo is always a few seconds behind my recording. I did not have my recording going, but I called it late 1519 due to the normal delay on it.
15:52:37 <KorbenC> I will put a comment saying it might have been early 20 as well
15:58:35 <KorbenC> Oblong pushing I think
16:23:09 <KorbenC> GRAND
16:23:12 <KorbenC> .
16:23:12 <KorbenC> .
16:23:26 <KorbenC> I think it is safe to call that T--
17:46:17 <Michael> Hello :lion:
17:46:48 <KorbenC> Hi Michelle
17:47:38 <Michael> Well, it did go. But I called a little too soon...
17:49:46 <KorbenC> Initial takes a while to get going
17:50:15 <KorbenC> really good interval following a 13 eruption series.
17:51:28 <Michael> Hi KorbenC. Agreed. I wasn't expecting the next series to start in daylight.
17:54:56 <KorbenC> makes me wonder if this series will be normal or weak.
17:57:54 <Michael> I'll stick with normal. At some point I decided the length of quiet between Lion series is just about random.
18:00:39 <KorbenC> Jarno, I know you read the chat logs, what is your opinion on the length of a prior series to the interval following?
18:04:01 <Michael> I've got to throw in a caveat: There's correlation between the long-term avaerages. So when Lion is routinely having 10-eruption series, there's more down-time between them.
18:05:31 <KorbenC> yeah, agreed
18:06:04 <Michael> I don't know a great way to put that into a formula, which is frustrating.
18:06:39 <KorbenC> I think Jarno has a good spreadsheet going, hopefully he will email it to me (looks to Jarno reading the chat logs)
18:08:10 <KorbenC> BH jumped back up. I am pretty sure because of the cold, snowy, windy weather
18:10:10 <Michael> I see it's even erupting at night again. For a while this summer I thought it forgot how to do that.
18:10:57 <KorbenC> It did, made in basin alot easier imho.
18:11:41 <Michael> :)
19:10:19 <KorbenC> Anemone or something very steamy there
19:26:44 <JarnoO> Lion's series end to series start tends to lag behind by one or two between-series intervals and also seems to be an average or median of an as-of-yet undetermined number of between-series intervals (some sort of long-term memory it's got). This also happened during the long series in 2009, where the few short series inbetween had an unusually long time to the next one (1½ to 2 days or so)
19:27:07 <JarnoO> Therefore I think the next between-series interval is going to be longer, perhaps 10-12h after this one has ended. 2018 had the same, albeit with considerably shorter between-series intervals.
19:28:04 <JarnoO> The late September series this year also had that I recall
19:33:09 <KorbenC> Thank you Jarno, appreciate the information!